A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
